Báo Tiền Phong: NHNN nên cẩn trọng điều hành chính sách tiền tệ

Theo TS Nguyễn Đức Thành, Viện trưởng Viện Nghiên cứu Kinh tế và Chính sách (VEPR), việc Việt Nam trở thành một trong bảy đối tác xuất khẩu ...

Theo TS Nguyễn Đức Thành, Viện trưởng Viện Nghiên cứu Kinh tế và Chính sách (VEPR), việc Việt Nam trở thành một trong bảy đối tác xuất khẩu nhiều nhất sang Mỹ và lượng dự trữ ngoại hối ngày càng gia tăng đã đưa Việt Nam tới gần cáo buộc thao túng tiền tệ của Mỹ. Điều này yêu cầu Ngân hàng Nhà nước (NHNN) cẩn trọng trong việc điều hành chính sách tiền tệ, linh hoạt và khách quan.

Bài viết này thuộc danh mục:✅ Tài chính, được chúng tôi tổng hợp từ báo Tiền Phong, nguồn bài: https://www.tienphong.vn/kinh-te/nhnn-nen-can-trong-dieu-hanh-chinh-sach-tien-te-1484508.tpo

Thặng dư thương mại vẫn được duy trì tốt trong năm 2019

Nhận định về diễn biến tỷ giá những tháng cuối năm, ông Thành dự báo, trong thời gian tới, tỷ giá trung tâm giữ đà tăng nhẹ. Nguyên nhân là sự bất ổn của đồng USD trước việc sản xuất suy giảm và sự đổ lỗi của Tổng thống Mỹ Donald Trump lên Fed đã để mức lãi suất cao. Căng thẳng liên quan đến Mỹ - Trung, Mỹ - Iran, Nhật - Hàn vẫn chưa được giải quyết.

Tại báo cáo kinh tế vĩ mô vừa công bố, Trường Đại học Ngân hàng TP Hồ Chí Minh đánh giá, dòng vốn đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài (FDI) đổ vào Việt Nam hàng năm là nguồn cung quan trọng trong tích lũy dự trữ ngoại hối, góp phần tạo kỷ lục vừa qua.

“Dù dự trữ ngoại hối tăng mạnh nhưng tăng trưởng cung tiền và tín dụng vẫn được kiểm soát cho thấy, NHNN đã điều hành ổn định tỷ giá. So với cuối tháng 12/2018, tăng trưởng tổng phương tiện thanh toán và tín dụng chỉ ở mức 6,54% và 7,33%. Do đó, áp lực lạm phát đã không xuất hiện, góp phần ổn định kinh tế vĩ mô”, báo cáo này chỉ rõ.

Chuyên gia kinh tế Phạm Thế Anh (Đại học Kinh tế quốc dân) cho rằng, NHNN cần tích trữ dòng vốn đủ lớn, để đảm bảo khả năng ứng phó khi dòng vốn nước ngoài có xu hướng đảo chiều. Mặt khác, Việt Nam đã đứng thứ 7 trong số các nước có thặng dư thương mại lớn với Mỹ nên dư địa để can thiệp vào thị trường ngoại hối không còn nhiều.

“Lãi suất của Việt Nam tương đối cao so với thế giới. Dòng vốn giải ngân đầu tư nước ngoài vào Việt Nam vẫn tăng và thặng dư thương mại vẫn được duy trì. Nếu NHNN không mua vào ngoại tệ, VND có thể sẽ lên giá”, chuyên gia Phạm Thế Anh cho biết.

Ông Cấn Văn Lực, chuyên gia Kinh tế trưởng Ngân hàng TMCP Đầu tư và Phát triển Việt Nam (BIDV), đánh giá, tỷ giá thực của đồng VND so với 13 loại tiền tệ (của 13 đối tác thương mại lớn với Việt Nam) có diễn biến tương đối sát diễn biến thị trường. Trong khi đó, việc NHNN điều chỉnh tỷ giá trung tâm thời gian qua góp phần làm tăng dư địa cho hoạt động mua vào ngoại tệ để dự trữ ngoại hối. Mặt khác, NHNN cũng tìm cách hút VND về để trung hòa lượng tiền đã bơm ra cho hoạt động mua vào ngoại tệ.

Ngọc Linh

Tìm kiếm:✨

  • VEPR, Phạm Thế Anh, Dự trữ ngoại hối, Nguyễn Đức Thành, Chính sách tiền tệ, Cán cân thương mại, Ngân hàng nhà nước việt nam, Dòng vốn, Ngoại tệ, FDI, Cung tiền, Cẩn trọng, Điều chỉnh tỷ giá, Thao túng, Cấn Văn Lực, VNĐ, Tỉ giá, BIDV, Tiền tệ, Thị trường ngoại hối

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Đọc Báo mới Mobile [Việt Nam Net, VNExpress, Bóng Đá 24h]: Báo Tiền Phong: NHNN nên cẩn trọng điều hành chính sách tiền tệ
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